How much can Generative AI influence work ? McKinsey estimates that tasks representing 30% of working hours in the United States could be automated, a trend that will be strongly affected by the presence of generative artificial intelligence between now and 2030.
This is not just a US trend, but a global one. Even in Europe, considering artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies alone, they have a strong market demand in Europe in all sectors. Developments in generative artificial intelligence have significantly lowered the threshold for using AI and ML software .
This means that, in addition to being pervasive on a technological level, GenAI will enable various jobs and economic opportunities: according to a report by Bloomberg Intelligence , with the influx of generative artificial intelligence programs for consumers, the market for generative artificial intelligence is poised to grow to $1.3 trillion over the next 10 years from a market size of just $40 billion in 2023. Not only that, growing demand for Generative AI products could add around $280 billion in new AI-related revenue software.
But what will his arrival change? What are the sectors that the advent of Gen AI could favor and what jobs could be generated or stimulated?
GENERATIVE AI FOR WORK: WHAT WILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND 2030
It has been said that within the next seven years, tasks representing up to 30% of hours currently worked in the US economy could be automated, a trend accelerated by generative artificial intelligence. Generative AI at work is expected to have positive influences, improving the way STEM, creative, business and legal professionals work. It will not eliminate a significant number of jobs, although McKinsey estimates that the greatest effects of automation will likely hit some job categories: “office support, customer service and restaurant employment may continue to decline” .
However, US investments to address climate and infrastructure, as well as structural changes, will also change labor demand.
“The zero-emissions transition will shift employment away from oil, gas and automotive manufacturing and into green industries, with a modest net gain in employment. Infrastructure projects will increase demand in the construction sector, which already employs almost 400 thousand workers.”
THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
While generative AI is still in its early stages, the potential applications for businesses are significant and far-reaching. It can be used “to write code, design products, create content and marketing strategies, streamline operations, analyze legal documents, provide customer support via chatbots, and even accelerate scientific discovery.” It can be used alone or in a complementary manner with human operators; the latter hypothesis is currently the most probable.
Generative AI has the potential to increase U.S. labor productivity by 0.5% to 0.9% per year through 2030 in a medium adoption scenario.
“By combining generative AI with all other automation technologies, the potential growth could be even greater. All types of automation could help drive US productivity growth to 3-4% annually in an intermediate adoption scenario.”
THE AREAS WHERE GENERATIVE AI WILL MAKE ITSELF FELT
That said, we can already foresee the sectors in which the influence of Generative AI on work will be particularly sensitive. Another study conducted by Mckinsey highlights that approximately 75% of the value generated by generative AI falls into four areas: customer operations (the activities that the company implements to come into direct contact with its customers); marketing and sales; software engineering; research and development.
Generative AI will have a significant impact across all industry sectors, although banking, high-tech, retail, consumer and life sciences will be among those potentially realizing the greatest impact as a percentage of revenue.
“In banking, for example, Generative AI could provide value equivalent to an additional $200-$340 billion in annual revenue. In the retail and consumer sectors, the potential revenue impact could reach $400-$660 billion annually.”
GENERATIVE AI AT WORK: IT DOESN’T ELIMINATE, BUT IMPROVES
The opportunities offered by the use of Generative AI in work are evident. However, the fear remains that it could eliminate jobs, rather than generate them. To dispel the doubts in this regard there are the results of a study conducted by the International Labor Organization , focused on investigating the potential effects on the quantity and quality of work. It suggests that most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are more likely to be complemented rather than replaced by solutions like chatGPT. Thus, “the greatest impact of this technology is likely not to be the destruction of jobs, but rather potential changes in the quality of jobs, particularly intensity and autonomy.”
The study finds that the potential effects of generative AI will differ significantly for men and women, with more than double the share of women’s employment potentially affected by automation.
What is clear, as the study highlights, is that the socioeconomic impacts of generative AI will largely depend on how its diffusion is managed.
To complete the transition, workers’ voices, professional training and adequate social protection will need to be taken into account. Otherwise there is a risk that only a few well-prepared countries and market players will benefit from the new technology.
